風が吹けば桶屋が儲かる Kaze ga fukeba okeya ga mōkaru When the wind blows, the tub maker profits.
Traditional Japanese proverb
The old tale imagines wind raising dust, more people losing their sight and taking up the shamisen, greater demand for cat skins for those instruments, fewer cats, and more rats chewing wooden tubs. The tub maker gains customers. The unlikely chain is why the saying can also mock a far-fetched prediction.
Following Statistics Day on October 18, this proverb is a reminder to ask whether one event really explains another.
Language note: 風が吹けば (kaze ga fukeba): when the wind blows. 桶屋 (okeya): a wooden-tub maker. 儲かる (mōkaru): to profit. The proverb points to indirect consequences, sometimes with a skeptical tone.
An interesting explanation is a starting point: check every step.
Practice: 一つの変化が、思わぬ結果につながる。 Hitotsu no henka ga, omowanu kekka ni tsunagaru. One change can lead to an unexpected result.
Sources: Shogakukan dictionaries via Kotobank — When the wind blows, the tub maker profits: https://kotobank.jp/word/%E9%A2%A8%E3%81%8C%E5%90%B9%E3%81%91%E3%81%B0%E6%A1%B6%E5%B1%8B%E3%81%8C%E5%84%B2%E3%81%8B%E3%82%8B-462844